Can You Win At Blackjack In A Casino
Blackjack Card counting has existed since the 1950s. Casinos initially struggled to deal with successful card counters.
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However, they’ve spent the past several decades understanding this advantage play (AP) method and how to combat it. Casinos have since added multiple decks, instated unfavorable rules, and learned how to spot APs.
These days, the industry even has technology on their side. They use facial recognition technology and databases to identify APs and keep their info on file, respectively.
That said, casinos seemingly have a big edge in this game of cat and mouse. Many blackjack players feel that card counting is dead as a result.
In reality, though, card counting and table-based advantage gambling is just as alive as ever. I’ll cover why this is the case and what you can do to win a fortune today.
Learning Card Counting Is Easy
You’ve likely seen card counting showcased in movies. This AP method is often portrayed as a complicated process that only geniuses can employ.
But counting cards isn’t really that complex, and you can learn it in minutes. Below, you can see the main components of card counting when using the popular Hi-Lo system.
Assign Values to Cards as They’re Dealt
Your first task as a card counter is to watch cards as they’re dealt and assign the following values to each type:
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- High cards (A through 10) = -1
- Neutral cards (7 through 9) = 0
- Low cards (2 through 6) = +1
You need to keep a running tallying and add or subtract 1 as each card comes out of the deck. This count is known as your “running count.”
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Convert Your Running Count into a True Count
Understanding the running count is a nice start. However, you need to have a “true count” to account for the multiple decks featured at most real money blackjack games.
You must divide the running count by the estimated remaining decks to make this conversion. You estimate the amount of decks left by visually looking at the shoe.
Here’s an example:
- +9 running count.
- You estimate that 3.5 decks remain.
- 9 / 3.5 = 2.57
- Your true count is +2.57
You may have trouble determining how many decks are left at first. Furthermore, you might not be so precise on the remaining decks (i.e. 3.5) and true count (i.e. 2.57).
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But the more precise you are, the better you’ll be at knowing your exact advantage or disadvantage. You should become more comfortable with these aspects over time.
Determine Your Edge (If Any)
Once you have the true count figured out, you can apply it to see if you have an advantage over the casino. Here’s how the true count correlates to an edge or disadvantage in various scenarios:
- +3 true count = 1.77% player’s edge
- +2 true count = 1.17% player’s edge
- +1 true count = 0.58% player’s edge
- 0 true count = 0.42% house edge
- -1 true count = 0.80% house edge
- -2 true count = 1.53% house edge
- +3 true count = 2.05% house edge
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You gain an advantage when the true count is at or near +1. However, you don’t want to raise your bets until reaching a +1.5 true count or higher. A more-favorable count helps you make higher wagers with more confidence.
Raise Your Bets to Capitalize On Your Edge
You determine your bet size based on your advantage in a given hand. Assuming the casino holds an edge, then you flat bet.
But you want to gradually raise your wagers as the true count becomes more favorable. Here are examples on how you can determine your bet sizes:
- +4 true count = $300
- +3 true count = $200
- +2 true count = $100
- +1 true count = $25
- 0 true count = $25
- -1 true count = $25
- -2 true count = $25
- +3 true count = $25
This model represents a 1-12 bet spread. $25 serves as one unit, while $300 represents 12 units (300 / 25).
You need to spread your bets from low to high to make long-term profits. However, you don’t want to get crazy with a 1-25 spread or higher. Pit bosses can easily spot this massive difference.
Consider Strategy Deviations Based on the Count
You can further increase your profits by knowing when to deviate from proper strategy based on the count.
The main idea behind card counting is to wager more when the deck is rich in aces and 10s. Your chances of getting a natural blackjack are higher at this point.
Another perk to counting cards is that you can tell when more high cards (favor you) exist than low cards (favor dealer). Dealers, who draw to a hard or soft 17, benefit from low cards, because they have a smaller chance of busting out.
Assuming you go away from basic strategy at the right times, you can further boost your edge. Here’s an example:
- You’re dealt an ace and 7 (soft 18).
- The dealer’s upcard is 2.
- Basic strategy dictates that you stand in this situation.
- However, the true count is a very favorable +3.
- The deck features a large number of high cards that could bust out the dealer.
- You double down as a result.
You don’t necessarily have to make these strategy deviations to win with counting. But you can increase your advantage even more when doing so.
Why Do People Consider Card Counting Dead?
Back in the 1960s, famed gambling author Edward Thorp refined card counting to the point where he gained a sizable edge over casinos.
However, Thorp’s Ten Count system wouldn’t hold up in today’s blackjack world. Worse rules, enhanced surveillance, savvy pit bosses, and facial recognition make counting tougher than ever.
You need to put far more effort into winning blackjack profits today. Many players take this as a sign that card counting is dead.
They don’t see a way to get around the databases, facial recognition, and RFID tracking inside chips that are used today.
Of course, card counters are still making money today. Therefore, those who think this AP method is dead are wrong.
You Can Still Win with the Right Approach
You can win through card counting alone if you’re skilled enough. But you should consider adding more layers to your approach in the form of shuffle tracking, different appearances, and more.
Shuffle Tracking on Top of Counting
Shuffle tracking is mixed with card counting to capitalize on weak shuffles. It can also result in less scrutiny from the pit boss and surveillance.
This technique calls on you to look for opportunities where aces and 10s are grouped together. You want to follow these card batches, or “slugs,” as they’re placed into the discard tray.
Once the shoe has been dealt, the dealer pulls cards out of the discard tray and begin shuffling.
You continue visually tracking the slugs as the croupier shuffles. If the dealer uses a “one pass” shuffle (weaker than two pass), you can successfully employ this method and determine where the slug might come out during the next shoe.
Assuming you’ve done a good job at tracking the slug, you can raise your bets once the slug cards begin coming out.
Shuffle tracking accomplishes two main goals:
- It gives you a bigger advantage by helping you track aces and 10s.
- It masks your counting efforts.
Regarding the latter, increasing your bets towards the end of the shoe is a big sign that you may be counting. You’re more likely to determine that the deck is rich in high cards at this point.
With shuffle tracking, though, you can more accurately locate a slug of good cards. If this slug is earlier in the shoe, then you can also spread your bets earlier too.
Switch up Your Appearance
You can hit the casino multiple times within a year or even month by changing your look. Different appearances make it harder for gambling venues to recognize you after multiple hot nights.
You don’t necessarily have to wear disguises. In fact, flamboyant looks can attract unwanted attention from the pit boss.
A better plan is to slightly alter your appearance. You can go unshaven with glasses one time, for example, then be cleanshaven the next.
Be Careful with Spreading Bets
Again, you want to be mindful of how large you’re spreading bets. The bigger the spread, the more likely the pit boss will take notice.
Of course, you must vary your minimum and maximum wagers by a fair amount. Otherwise, you won’t make any money.
But you also want to avoid being greedy and going from a $10 minimum to $500. A 1-100 spread like this will almost assuredly lead to you being thrown out.
Know Where to Count Cards
Some of the best US casinos are more tolerant than others when monitoring advantage players. Ideally, you’ll play at gambling establishments that gives you the benefit of the doubt.
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Every casino has its limits regarding APs. The best plan is to research casinos ahead of time and chose those that have a reputation for being lenient.
Stay on the Move
The worst thing you can do as an advantage gambler is continue hitting the same casino again and again. One huge session can draw attention from the pit boss and surveillance – let alone multiple big wins in a row.
You want to stay on the move and continue traveling from casino to casino. This practice is much easier in major gambling destinations, such as Atlantic City and Las Vegas.
Assuming you’re good enough and have a large bankroll, you might even consider playing in various states. This way, you avoid developing the AP stigma in single gambling destination.
Conclusion
Card counting is much easier to learn than Hollywood makes it seem. You can earn money through counting if you practice enough and develop good skills.
That said, card counting isn’t dead in any capacity. Even with their sophisticated technology and trained employees, casinos are still losing money to APs.
Of course, counting cards is also tougher than at any point. The best APs counter this by improving their skills even more.
Some of the things that you can do to boost your profits include shuffle tracking, changing your appearance, researching casinos, and staying on the move. The more layers you throw on top of your card counting approach, the more money you stand to win.
But first thing’s first: you need to thoroughly learn basic card counting. After you feel comfortable in your counting abilities, you should proceed to the advanced AP techniques.
Ways To Win At Casinos
Blackjack is arguably one of the most played games that you can find in the casino, as it offers strategic gameplay and high betting levels that can let you win plenty of bonuses and coins. While blackjack is quite easy to play once you understand the basics, it is actually difficult to win a match in the game because of how strategy-focused it is. If you are a beginner looking for a way to win a match of blackjack in an online casino, we are here to give you several tips on how to have a proper mindset and strategy in playing the game. So, let’s get started with the list and talk about the first tip.
Don’t Take the First Base Seat
The player sitting on the first base seat is the one that will receive the first card for the game, thus making the player the first one to make any move with his or her card on the table. While this may be advantageous for experienced players that don’t want opponents to affect their card, this seat is highly unfavorable for beginners that just started to learn how to play blackjack, as it would give little to no time to think about their move. It is recommended that you sit either in the middle or at the last seat so that you will have a few minutes to reconsider your moves or to review the dealer’s up card.
Always Think about the Dealer’s Up Card
The key to winning a match of blackjack is not actually the card on your hand, but the dealer’s up card, as it would often determine the outcome of the match. If the dealer’s up card shows 7 or higher, there would be a higher chance for you to win depending on your card, but if the up card is 6 or lower, you might want to fold or surrender for the match. The dealer’s up card would also determine the chances of winning for your opponents, so be sure to check their reactions to see if they have a winning hand.
Don’t Make an Insurance Bet
An insurance in blackjack is a side bet wherein the dealer will ask players if they want to bet on the dealer’s card if ever they turn into a winning hand. The insurance bet will only be offered if the dealer has an ace as his or her up card, and the dealer will then ask all players if they want to bet an insurance before the first player makes his or her move. While insurance bets will allow you to break even with your coins even if you don’t have a winning hand, betting for insurance is actually not recommended, as there is also a low chance that the dealer can have a winning hand despite having an ace. It is better to stay away from insurance bets and just stick to the cards on your hand.
Don’t Start with Large Bets
It is a general rule for casino players to always start small while playing, as it would allow them to gauge if they have a lucky hand today or if their draws are cold. Once you feel like you are in a hot streak where you are always winning matches, you can gamble to bet larger bets and see if luck is still with you. However, if you want cold streaks, it would be best to just bet low and start forming strategies in how to win more in the game. These streaks would often affect your mentality in the game, as cold streaks would dishearten you to give effort in strategizing. So, don’t let your hot and cold streaks affect your gameplay, as casino games also involve strategy besides luck.
Know When to Stop Playing
Having a losing streak can be heartbreaking, but there would often be a growing feeling in your mind where you think that if you keep playing, your losing streak may finally stop. Unfortunately, that doesn’t always happen, and some players would often suffer from losing all their money in the game because they couldn’t stop playing, as they have hopes that they may win a match at some point. The key to winning in the fun casino game blackjack is to actually know when to stop playing, as it allows you to control how much coins or money you lose in the game. If you keep losing, it is better if you stop playing for a while and think of better strategies to win next time, as continue playing while disheartened may push you deeper into the heartbreak of losing without realizing that you are already betting your entire budget for playing the game.
The same tip can also be applied when you have a winning streak, as luck may often disappear after a few matches and would eventually lead you to a devastating losing streak. After winning a large bet in blackjack, the best thing for you to do is to stop playing and just enjoy what you won instead of betting it on another game that may either end up on a win or a loss. Winning doesn’t always involve getting large prizes, coins, and bonuses, as it can also be found after enjoying a few rounds of blackjack and other casino games. After all, blackjack is still considered a game, so it should be a source of enjoyment rather than heartbreak.